Pandemic Lockdowns: How Effective?

It's been more than a year; the pandemic has not ended yet. Despite the vaccinations, why is there a surge? Despite the current lockdown, COVID cases more than doubled in 11 days (66,895 active cases before the lockdown on 5 August; 106,672 cases on 16 August).

I think, the lockdown will only delay transmission of the virus. Once the people start to roam again the cities and other places, there goes the dreadful COVID again. Perhaps, even for just a week, IATF could have implemented ALL-STAY-HOME-NO-ONE-GOES-OUT policy. In case of emergency, call an emergency hotline. Rescue and medical teams pick up the patient.

The problem is: do we have a hotline? How many ambulances do we have? Well, that should not be a problem. Everything can be planned.

Circuit Breaker: Total Lockdown

Here's an actual scenario.

A friend visited my sister on her birthday. She stopped her car in front of the house. Without getting off, she rolled down her window and had a quick chat with my sister. My sister handed her some iced tea, then she drove off. It all happened in seconds; not even a minute. 

Just after finishing her iced tea, her throat started to itch. The next day, my sister's friend felt unwell. She was swabbed; she was positive. All in her family, kids included, were infected. Only one toddler was spared.

As a consequence, my sister quarantined herself while all of us others tried to distance from her. Nevertheless, you can't imagine the anxiety creeping in our heads. 

Now, imagine if multiple similar scenarios happened on that day, how many people could have been infected?

Hypothetical Scenario

What if a total lockdown was implemented instead even for just a week? What could have been a scenario? Let's hypothetically imagine.

If there was a total lockdown, the actual scenario that I just stated would have not happened. No friend visited my sister. None in her family could have been infected.

See my point there? A total absolute lockdown could have prevented a surge.

Yes, it is possible that even before the lockdown, more than a few could have been already infected. But, at least, with a total lockdown, they could have been prevented from spreading the virus.

Have you heard of a strawberry lockdown?

I'll write about it tomorrow.